Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
