Just two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
