Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
